The “State of the Kingdom” Blog
State of the Kingdom: Weekly Mortgage, Finance, and Real Estate
Published June 23, 2025
As we embark on another week, the U.S. mortgage, finance, and real estate sectors continue to adapt to a landscape shaped by persistent inflation, the Federal Reserve's cautious stance, and evolving housing dynamics. This recap aims to provide valuable insights for home buyers, current homeowners, and real estate professionals navigating these conditions nationwide.
Mortgage Market Overview: Rates See Modest Decline
Mortgage rates registered a slight decrease this past week, offering a glimmer of positive news for those considering a home purchase or refinance. While rates remain elevated relative to the ultra-low levels seen in recent history, any downward movement contributes to improved affordability.
As of Friday, June 20, 2025, the national average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was approximately 6.82%, with an APR of 6.90%. This marks a decline of 5 basis points from the same time last week.
The national average for a 15-year fixed mortgage rate was around 6.04%, with an APR of 6.13%.
For a 5/1 Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM), the national average rate was approximately 6.15%, with an APR of 6.58%.
This slight dip comes amidst ongoing volatility in the bond market, which heavily influences mortgage rates. Experts continue to project a gradual easing of rates through the remainder of 2025, though significant, rapid drops are not widely anticipated. The general consensus points to rates hovering in the upper 6% to low 7% range for the foreseeable future.
Finance and Economic Highlights: Fed Stays Pat, Tariffs Impact Outlook
The Federal Reserve concluded its mid-June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting by maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%. This decision underscores the Fed's patient approach as it monitors economic data, particularly inflation and employment figures, before considering any rate adjustments.
While the Fed's "dot plot" still indicates a median projection of two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of 2025, it's notable that some committee members foresee no cuts this year. A key factor influencing the Fed's cautious outlook is the potential impact of new tariff policies, which are expected to contribute to higher consumer prices. The Fed's updated economic projections for June 2025 reflect this, with a slightly higher forecast for core inflation this year (3.1%).
Mortgage applications saw a decrease of 2.6% for the week ending June 13, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). This decline occurred even as average mortgage rates decreased, suggesting that ongoing economic uncertainty, including concerns about tariffs and job security, continues to weigh on potential homebuyers' decisions. Refinance activity also saw a decrease, though it remains higher than the same period last year.
Real Estate Market Trends: Inventory Growth Continues, Shifting Leverage
The U.S. housing market is increasingly characterized by a shift towards more balanced conditions, with growing inventory and some price adjustments offering new opportunities for buyers.
Key national trends include:
Continued Inventory Growth: Housing supply continues its upward trajectory across the country. Nationally, the number of homes actively for sale increased by approximately 28.1% year-over-year, marking 84 consecutive weeks of annual gains. This is especially pronounced in the South and West, where inventory levels now exceed pre-pandemic figures. This increase in choice is a welcome development for buyers who have faced limited options for years.
Price Stabilization and Adjustments: The median listing price nationally has remained relatively flat year-over-year. Data suggests that a significant portion of homes—around 4 out of 10—are selling below their asking price, and roughly one-third have seen a price reduction. This indicates that while prices are not collapsing, sellers are increasingly needing to adjust expectations to meet market realities.
Longer Days on Market: Homes are taking longer to sell, with the national median time on market now around 51 days. This provides buyers with more time to conduct due diligence, secure financing, and potentially negotiate more favorable terms, a stark contrast to the rapid-fire bidding wars of 2021-2022.
Affordability Challenges Persist: Despite some positive shifts, affordability remains a primary concern due to elevated mortgage rates and, in many areas, still-high home prices. The median U.S. home-sale price reached a new record of $396,500 during the four weeks ending June 15. This continues to put pressure on potential buyers' budgets.
Buyer-Friendly Environment Emerging: The confluence of rising inventory, price adjustments, and longer market times signals a more buyer-friendly environment than seen in recent years. This shift in leverage could benefit those who are pre-approved and ready to act strategically.
Looking ahead, market forecasts suggest that while home price growth may continue to moderate or even see slight declines in some regions by the end of 2025, a widespread market crash is not anticipated given underlying demand and still-constrained supply in many areas.
Compliance Statement:
This blog content has been compiled with diligence, prioritizing accuracy and relevance for a national audience. All information pertaining to mortgage interest rates explicitly includes the Annual Percentage Rate (APR). We have thoroughly reviewed this content to ensure strict compliance with all relevant state and federal laws and licensed mortgage loan originator rules and guidelines for advertising, including fair lending practices, truthful advertising, and clear disclosure of terms.